There is still HOPE with Covid-19 - health expert.

A Kenyan biostatistician, Elijah Samuel Kiruri  insists that there is still much hope in the fight against Corona virus. 
In a post through his Facebook account, he explains the current trends and encourages Kenyans to continue staying safe. 

Below is his statement, 

"In a pandemic, reducing the infection rate and bringing the reproductive number to less than 1 is the main objective. Nevertheless and as projected by various models, the corona virus is likely to be here for some time. Thus, keeping track of both mortality and recoveries is paramount for critical decision making. Today, I share some trends in regard to the recoveries, deaths and cumulative confirmed cases in the country (Figure below). 



Although the number of confirmed cases in the country have been on the increase, its worth to note that the recovery rate has also been increasing while the mortality rate has been on a downward trajectory specifically in the past 10 days and hope that this momentum can be maintained. Higher recovery rate and low mortality rate are among the indicators of a strong health systems in battling a pandemic. 

The recoveries increased significantly last week (the week ending 7th June recorded 278 recoveries which was the largest weekly recoveries) after the same nose-dived in the last half of May. This week also started on a high note when recoveries were 97 and more than confirmed cases. From all confirmed cases, the % of recoveries stands as 29.7% and this has increased from a low of 23.8% on 2nd June. Consequently from the 934 closed cases, 91% are recoveries up from 87% on 2nd June. 

Encouragingly, from the closed cases, the % of deaths as of today is estimated as 9.1% which is the lowest ever since the first case of COVID was recorded in Kenya and for the first time it has been below 10%; and this has also been declining for the past week. However, this is still higher than the continental estimate of 5.8%. Finally, the Case Fatality as of today is estimated as 3.0% and this is the lowest recorded since 4th April and has also been on a downward trajectory from a high of 6.0% on 16th May 2020

Today, I pay special tribute to all the Front-line Workers who are working tirelessly to manage this pandemic. May God continue to give them strength, will and power to continue with this battle. Soon, we will overcome . "

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